World population projections – Beware of sources

Updated 2019 05 24, to present more “precise” estimates of annual numbers of deaths caused by abortions, worldwide.

UN world population projections are widely known.  Two other sources of world population projections deserve to be known as well.  They are the Wittgenstein Centre and IIASA.  The credibility of any of those sources is in the eye of the beholder.  Time will tell whose projections realistically predict what the future brings.

Contrary to the UN projections, the IIASA medium (most likely) scenario indicates that world population will increase to 9.2 billion by 2050, peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start a slow decline to 9.0 billion by the end of the century.

9 billion or 11 billion?
The research behind new population projections
Sep 23, 2014
By Wolfgang Lutz, Bill Butz, Samir KC, Warren Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov: IIASA World Population Program

This blog posting presents graphs and information gleaned from https://ourworldindata.org, a non-profit website.

World Population Projections per the UN

UN world population projections

UN World Population Projections

More at Future Population Growth, by Max Roser

World Population Projection per the Wittgenstein Centre

World Population Projection by Wittgenstein Centre

World Population Projection by Wittgenstein Centre

More at 9 billion or 11 billion? The research behind new population projections, by: Wolfgang Lutz, Bill Butz, Samir KC, Warren Sanderson, and Sergei Scherbov: IIASA World Population Program

Progress with Reducing Extreme Poverty in the World

The number of people living in extreme poverty fell from close to 2 billion in 1990 to 0.7 billion in 2015 (see here). On no day in this 25 year period was the headline of any newspaper in the world “The number of people in extreme poverty fell by 137,000 since yesterday”. This is despite the fact that – on average – this would have been an accurate headline every single day during these 25 years.1
Because the media – as well as schools and universities – largely neglect reporting slow but transformative news the large public is extremely poorly educated about these developments. Even the decline of global extreme poverty – by any standard one of the most important developments in our lifetime – is only known by a small fraction of the population of the UK (10%), South Africa (14%), Norway (17%), Sweden (23%), and the US (5%).2

— Our World In Data, Motivation

Progress with Reducing Child Mortality

It is at least interesting that, as so many others, Our World in Data, too, concerns itself with saving the world from over-population, while promoting health for all, more education, reducing mortality rates, increasing life expectancy, and – importantly – hopes to reduce  child mortality:

Global child mortality fell from 18.2% in 1960 to 4.3% in 2015; while 4.3% is still too high, this is a substantial achievement. But similarly on no day in the last 5 decades was there ever the headline ‘Global Child Mortality Fell by 0.00719% Since Yesterday’.

— Our World In Data, Motivation

The Price for Demographic Progress

Demographic progress comes at a heavy price.  It requires the killing of about 50 million children due to be born, annually, worldwide.  The website of Our World In Data does not mention that, let alone stress it.  The promotion of population control through coercive and at the very least persuasive and effective abortion policies is a major goal of the UN as well as of one of the major funders of Our World In Data, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

“If we have gotten to the point in our desperate culture in which we feel obligated to kill children, regardless of why or of what color, then we do not deserve to survive and probably won’t.”

— William Faulkner

How Many Abortions Took Place Last Year?

Is there an elephant in the living room?

Obviously, the most expedient way in which to deal with the by far largest single cause of deaths in the world, is not to mention 50 million abortions, annually, worldwide. Everything will then be fine, and we can deal with the causes of deaths that really matter.

Annual number of causes of deaths The number of 50 million abortions, annually, worldwide, is the result of a quick, back-of-of-the-envelope calculation.  Here is a more precise estimate of the annual number of abortions, worldwide:

Abortion was the number one cause of death worldwide in 2018, with more than 41 million children killed before birth, Worldometers reports.

As of December 31, 2018, there have been some 41.9 million abortions performed in the course of the year, Worldometers revealed. By contrast, 8.2 million people died from cancer in 2018, 5 million from smoking, and 1.7 million died of HIV/AIDS.

Worldometers — voted one of the best free reference websites by the American Library Association (ALA) — keeps a running tally through the year of major world statistics, including population, births, deaths, automobiles produced, books published, and CO2 emissions.

It also records the total number of abortions in the world, based on the latest statistics on abortions published by the World Health Organization (WHO)….
(more: How Many 2018 Worldwide Abortions Occurred? — Truth News Network)

Politically-correct fence-sitting and which side to come down on

Then again, preferences vary.  Some may not wish to refer to an objective source of information on the annual number of abortions, a subject of literally vital importance.  They may rather go to a source such as Snopes, which will inform them that,

“…the most recent figure on abortions from WHO we could locate dated from 2014 and was slightly higher than Worldometers’ tally. WHO estimated that between 2010 and 2014, an average of 56 million induced abortions occurred worldwide each year….

We can infer from WHO statistics that the difference between the number of abortions worldwide versus the number of deaths from heart disease and stroke worldwide is not a new dynamic, although viral stories proclaiming that abortions “now” outnumber deaths from those other causes imply that fact is a recent development.

Stating that abortion is the “leading cause of death” worldwide (as opposed to a medical procedure) is a problematic pronouncement, because that stance takes a political position, one which is at odds with the scientific/medical world. The medical community does not confer personhood upon fetuses that are not viable outside the womb, so counting abortion as a “cause of death” does not align with the practices of health organizations such as WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),….(more)

The Snopes article presents a good number of rhetorical devices which illustrate that abortions involve “fetuses”, not human lives, and that many authorities consider them to be acceptable.  To the credit of Snopes, its article avoids declaring the assumption that abortions are a cause of deaths as being false. 

Snopes therefore permits anyone to come down on the side of the fence they prefer in the debate on whether abortions are deadly or not.  Snopes essentially argues that abortion is a therapeutic medical procedure, designed to cure the fatal condition of living, viable “fetuses,” by killing them.  It is a procedure that causes the deaths of babies that would otherwise be born alive and grow with virtual certainty from lovable, cuddly human bundles of joy into fully functioning, productive adults capable of experiencing the full range of things humanity offers.  That leads to this practical conclusion:

“I’ve noticed that everyone who is for abortion has already been born.”

― Ronald Reagan


#Abortion #PopulationControl #WorldDemographics

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